OP ED COLUMN: OPINION ON PAGE ONE- Is revolutionary govt still the ultimate goal? – By Francisco S. Tatad
FRANCISCO S. TATAD
THE chief military spokesman for the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) has denied the existence of an alleged communist-military plot, repeatedly denounced by President Rodrigo Duterte, to oust him from office this October. The National Bureau of Investigation on the other hand has announced the arrest of certain individuals and the capture of some arms allegedly connected to the said plot. Which story should we believe?
DU30’s story contains a curious mix of alleged plotters. Whether in a purely tactical or strategic scenario, the communists will never want to work with the military, and the military will never want to work with the communists. They are sworn ideological enemies, even though ideology has long ended, according to Daniel Bell and others, and it’s like mixing oil and water —it will simply not work. So it’s easier to believe that the AFP spokesman is telling the truth, while the NBI is simply trying to humor the President.
What is ‘Red October’?
The alleged plot is said to be codenamed “Red October.” In Tom Clancy’s Cold War-era novel, now a box-office movie thriller, “Red October” is the name of a Soviet submarine which sails into an American port because its captain, Marko Ramius, played by Sean Connery in the movie, has gone rogue and wants to defect to the United States. In DU30’s scenario, the communists would like to take over his government, with the alleged support of some disgruntled members of the armed forces. This strikes many retired officers I have talked to as an improbable scenario.
It is easier to imagine patriotic members of the AFP thinking of withdrawing their allegiance and support from the President and Commander in Chief because of his strong personal ties with the communists and his original plan to forge a revolutionary coalition government with them, rather than because he is determined to give them no quarter.
If there is any sign of disaffection with DU30 within the military, it is precisely because of his earlier decision to appoint CPP central committee members to his Cabinet even without the benefit of a peace agreement, and then to turn to China and Russia for arms procurement just to spite the US, which used to be the sole provider of military equipment and supplies to the AFP.
There seems no sensible reason for any group of military men and women to enter into any kind of partnership with the CPP/NPA/NDF, whether time-bound or open-ended, to try to bring down a failing government that will expire in three years. Many people would find greater wisdom in waiting for that same government to simply self-destruct or expire.
Whose play is it?
The alleged “Red October” plot is either the fruit of some people’s efforts to spook DU30, or DU30’s own fiction dictated by his propaganda war. Some people are capable of floating certain types of stories just to play with the King; to this type of stories, one could assign a recent online report of a so-called international people’s tribunal condemning DU30 in an alleged trial, without his participation. This was sufficiently dignified with an incoherent statement from the President’s legal counsel.
DU30 is equally capable of manufacturing stories just to rile his critics and adversaries. “Red October” could be one such story.
Sison’s role
Jose Maria Sison, the founding chairman of the Communist Party of the Philippines, was the first to announce that DU30 will not survive the year 2019—not necessarily because the CPP/NPA/NDF has the capability and the resolve to oust him, but possibly because Sison says he is a very sick man. Amid reports that DU30 had been coughing badly before and after his last state of the nation address (SONA), Sison announced from Utrecht that DU30 had gone into a coma—a story which Special Presidential Assistant Christopher Lawrence “Bong” Go made light of, by pointing out that DU30 merely stayed “sa kama” (in bed), rather than in a coma.
But later Sison started talking of the mysterious darkening of DU30’s face as symptoms of life-threatening ailments. This gave DU30 the opportunity to talk about his alleged trek through the woods in Mindanao and the desert in Jordan, with King Abdullah 2nd, as the explanation for his “sunburn.”
No one has talked of the alleged project to oust DU30 more than DU30 himself. Whenever he gets carried away, he tends to include in the alleged group of plotters the amorphous Liberal Party, though strangely enough he no longer includes the highest elected LP official, Vice President Leni Robredo; and Sen. Antonio Trillanes 4th’s Magdalo group, which is not exactly an ally of the CPP/NPA/NDF. His main focus tends to be the ideological group with whom he had originally planned to organize a coalition government.
Communists’ motive
The CPP/NPA/NDF may have the sufficient motive. After all, he has dropped the peace talks between NDF-1 and NDF-2, and abandoned, for now, their envisioned coalition government. But do they have the capability to oust him from office? Assuming they do, will Chinese President Xi Jinping allow him to be ousted, after he had openly bragged that Xi would never allow it? Take note, Xi has never corrected DU30’s statement.
If Xi does not intervene, and if the CPP/NPA/NDF and Magdalo end up working together, they would be a real force to reckon with. But as previously stated, the military will never want to work with the communists, whether as an institution or as individual former soldiers. The latest AFP statement has declared the AFP is committed to follow the Constitution, and to defy any illegal order that may be issued by any superior officer. Not even the President and Commander in Chief can order the military to act against the Constitution and the rule of law.
This means that even if the alleged communist plot does, in fact, exist, it cannot have and shouldn’t have any traction within the military. It is therefore not in DU30’s interest to keep talking about it. He should know his endless blabbering about it has already cost him so much political capital. But obviously it is also serving some of his purposes well.
A great distraction
For it has created a great distraction from the overwhelming problems of the day and hour. For as long as the people are focused on this red herring, they would have no time to bother about the hyperinflation that threatens mass starvation, economic collapse, and political and social disintegration. There is also the chance that any adverse public reaction to “Red October” could allow DU30, through Mayor Sara’s Hugpong ng Pagbabago, to finally superimpose his long-planned “revolutionary government” on top of the existing constitutional government.
That’s what DU30 has been threatening to do from the very beginning. It appears he is now trying to push his revolutionary government idea simply by scaring the nation about “Red October.” In fact a couple of individuals have told me they have been offered some mayoralty positions in the prospective revolutionary government.
If these claims are true, the current scenario, as we know it, could change altogether. If revolutionary government becomes our common problem, the various political forces, who could never, under normal circumstances, work together, might find themselves working on the same side against this extra-constitutional challenge.
IN MEMORIAM
Ambassador Joe V. Romero Jr. interred
The remains of the late former Ambassador Jose V. Romero Jr. who died in Baltimore, Maryland, last September 10 at the age of 84, were interred last Saturday after a solemn funeral mass at the Sanctuario de San Antonio parish in Forbes Park. He used to contribute op-ed pieces to The Manila Times. At the necrological service on Friday at the San Antonio, former Ambassadors Jimmy Yambao and Lauro Baja and DFA Chief Coordinator Maria Theresa B. Dizon-De Vega offered tributes. Former Prime Minister Cesar Virata was among those who paid their final respects. Joe’s family and friends would like to thank all those who condoled with the bereaved and continue to pray for the repose of his soul from the time he passed.
Philosopher-concert pianist Maria Luisa ‘Nena’ Zumel Lopez, 90
“Nena” Zumel Lopez, a devoted Catholic Christian and an accomplished professional, passed away last Friday at 90, after living a full life. She graduated in 1952 from the Faculty of Philosophy and Letters, University of Sto. Tomas, and remained an active member of the Philets Alumni Association which meets regularly at the call of Philets alumna Mitos Cabrera Araneta and fellow alumni Tony and Annie Roxas. Nena’s recollections of World War 2 are considered by her friends as historical classics. Her remains may be viewed at the Arlington Memorial Chapels on Araneta Avenue, Quezon City until tomorrow (Tuesday). Her family and friends and the Philets Alumni Association would like to ask the pious reader to pray for the repose of her soul.
MILESTONE
Jesse Paredes, broadcaster, raconteur, turns 81. Jesse Paredes of the famous Paredes clan, a dear friend who used to host a weekly radio show and the Thursday Club noontime gatherings at Myther and Friends in Ermita, turned 81 last Saturday and was honored by family and friends at the Tower Club. He would like to thank all those who came and those who offered their prayers and best wishes. Happy birthday, Jesse!
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