Aseanews Headlines: FOREIGN POLICY EXPERT: MANILA- ‘Federalism could lead to separatism’
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SHIFTING to a federal system of government could lead to states eventually seceding and declaring independence or joining a neighboring state, an expert on Central European affairs has warned.
Krystian Cholaszczynski, a political science professor at the College of Social and Media Culture in Poland, cited the case of the small state of Crimea, which was granted autonomy by Ukraine but was later annexed by Moscow.
“Federalization, for me, can be a dangerous thing,” Cholaszczynski said in a lecture at the University of Santo Tomas in Manila on Thursday.
“Why, for what? Do you want to lose some territories? Federalism means that territories may be taken by neighbors or superpowers,” he added.
In the Philippines, federalism has been touted as a solution to Muslim secessionist tendencies, with the proposed Bangsamoro autonomous region that will have more powers than the existing Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao eyed as a model.
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The planned Bangsamoro region, to be created under a peace deal between the government and the Moro Islamic Liberation Front in 2014, is patterned after states in the Malaysian federal system, and will have its own unicameral parliament, cabinet ministers and a ceremonial or titular head.
Last week, the House of Representatives passed on second reading the Resolution of Both Houses 15, which seeks a shift to federalism.
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Cholaszczynski noted that in Central Europe, which includes Austria, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Liechtenstein, Poland, Slovakia and Slovenia, the concept of federalism is not favored.
This is because of Russia’s takeover of Crimea, a Russian province until the Soviet Union made it part of the Ukraine in 1954. When communism collapsed in 1991, Ukraine declared independence and took Crimea but made it an autonomous republic.
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With the help of Russian expatriates, Crimea seceded in 2014 and became part of Russia.
Ukraine still regards Crimea as part of its territory and is fighting to get it back, but Cholaszczynski said that in the Europeans’ eyes, it is already owned by the Russian Federation, which is led by Vladimir Putin, a strongman who has used “manipulation, falsification, slander, economic weapons, economic sanctions and energy sanctions” to re-emerge as a superpower in Central and Eastern Europe.
Ukraine has found an ally in the United States, a rival of Russia, but Cholaszczynski said “America has no place in Europe.”
Russia, he noted, has “shown desire to use force to achieve its business,” and had broken many international laws, but did not suffer any “important consequence.”
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Russia, China ‘deal’
Because of its focus on Central and Eastern Europe, Russia is not particularly involved in East Asian affairs, under a tacit agreement with China to separate their spheres of influence, he said.
“The Russian Federation is in a difficult geopolitical position. Pushed to the corner in an economic confrontation with China, it is offensively entering into the Central European region. China, thanks to big economic growth, has become a leading member of the Asian economy, and influence in a part on the post-Soviet subsistence system through greater activity in Beijing, undermining Russia’s influence,” Cholaszczynski said.
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“Russia is increasingly beginning to feel the unstable position of China and India, which is a threat to its Asian parts. In the eyes of China itself, it is weakening and losing its importance as an investment and trading partner. Looking for alternatives to maintaining the Russian superpower, Moscow interests moves to Central and Eastern Europe,” he added.
“The direction that the Kremlin is picking at the moment is naturally imposed on him. At present, Russia cannot do much in demographic, economic or financial confrontation with countries from the Far East,” he said.
The pivot of two traditional American allies — Turkey and the Philippines under Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and Rodrigo Duterte, respectively — toward Russia, however, is a positive development for President Putin, he said.
“I understand that you need partners…Just like us in the central Europe, we need more powerful allies. We found our allies not in Europe but in America. You found one in Russia,” Cholaszczynski said.
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