EDITORIAL: Odds against new lotto plan

The cabinet of Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha must show a high degree of caution when the proposal, which has yet to be reviewed by the Council of State or undergo public hearings, is tabled for its consideration.

The zodiac game, approved by the GLO board last week, will be separate from the current number-based lottery. Tickets for the image-draw will cost 50 baht each and 60% of sales proceeds will be used to pay the winners with the rest going to the government. The top prize is awarded for four zodiac pictures in exact matching order while smaller prizes are given for four matching pictures in any order. The draw will take place on the 1st and 16th days of every month.

Tickets are likely to be sold online or via vending machines.

The GLO board wants the new form of lottery ticket to solve the problem of overpriced conventional lottery tickets as well as tackle underground two-and-three-digit lottery business valued at 500 billion baht annually.

But the scheme is unlikely to achieve its objectives.

For one thing, the root cause of overpriced lottery tickets is the GLO’s semi-monopoly over the distribution system. Most of its lottery tickets are distributed based on predetermined quotas to major private and state wholesalers.

Once they get their quotas, these wholesalers then group lottery tickets bearing the same numbers together and sell them in bundles as these can attract gamblers with bigger rewards.

After that, the ticket bundles are resold to second-tier wholesalers and then retailers at inflated prices of between 100-150 baht per ticket which is higher than the GLO’s standard 80 baht ticket.

In an effort to tackle the selling of ticket bundles at inflated prices, the office last year said it planned to sell a portion of lottery tickets in bundles with a jackpot of 300 million baht.

One bundle would comprise five similar tickets, it said. But there has been no progress on this.

As long as the GLO maintains its current distribution system, wholesalers and retailers will continue with their system of selling ticket bundles at inflated prices. The zodiac game will not help eliminate the problem.

The proposed game won’t solve the underground two-and-three digit lottery business either because the latter offers a higher probability of winning, roughly ranging from 1/100 to 1/1,000. By contrast, a chance to win the proposed zodiac-based game is as low as 1/20,736.

The previous military government failed to tackle both the overpricing of tickets and the underground business despite Gen Prayut’s sweeping powers under Section 44 of the interim constitution.

It is therefore questionable whether his new government will succeed in tackling the same problems.

What the zodiac game can definitely succeed at is drawing more money out of people’s pockets as its pattern looks more like a gamble than a lottery scheme.

The young are also at risk of being lured by the proposed game which will be made available online. Even though buyers are required to be at least 20 years of age, it is unclear how the state can impose this regulation.

The proposed zodiac lottery scheme is not the right way to tackle chronic problems in the system. The government must admit this fact handle the GLO’s proposal with care.