As the year 2021 that is about to end has not been easy for most of us, we pray for discernment as we prepare to elect on May 9, 2022 a new president, a vice president, a dozen senators, a full House of Representatives, among other officials.

The campaign starts Feb. 8, but there is already partisan excitement leading to May 9 when the nation decides if it must remain in the hands of inept and corrupt nominees of political dynasties or elect reformists attuned to true public service.

The latest survey of Pulse Asia shows ex-senator Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr. ahead in the presidential race, getting 53 percent of the 2,400 respondents against the 20 percent of Vice President Leni Robredo. This is the first time that anyone had garnered a majority.

If the son of the former dictator maintains his wide lead, he would be able to recapture the presidential palace that his family abandoned in 1986 as they fled in panic to Hawaii at the height of the People Power Revolt.

But a statistical detail cautions that it may not be that easy for Marcos to sweep the 2022 election, even if he and Robredo generally maintain their early campaign momentum.

Robredo sprung to second place to Marcos after leaping to a 20-percent share from her 8 percent in the previous September survey, where her scores across regions and economic classes ranged from 8 to 12 percent. In this last survey of Dec. 6-11, her range across classes improved to 10 to 25 percent.

Robredo’s regional percentages have shot up since September in the National Capital Region (14 from 10 percent), Balance Luzon (24 from 8 percent), Visayas (25 from 10 percent) and Mindanao (10 from 4 percent).

Across classes, her standing also improved: ABC (24 from 8 percent), D (19 from 8 percent) and E (21 from 11 percent).

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Robredo’s spokesman Barry Gutierrez said her big jump is a “definitive affirmation of the energy and momentum of the people’s campaign that emerged” after she declared her candidacy.

Like other observers, he said the 2022 elections loom as a showdown between Robredo and Marcos, who dueled in 2016 for the vice presidency. Their fight, triggered by Marcos’ protest, went all the way to the Supreme Court that sat as the Presidential Electoral Tribunal, which resolved it in favor of Robredo.

“We are confident that in the next four months, VP Leni’s consistent, hands-on leadership and the enthusiastic efforts of our volunteers, will continue to broaden and increase her support,” he said.

Some of the factors that may have influenced respondents in the survey were the decision of some presumed aspirants not to run for president. In September, Pulse Asia listed Davao Mayor Sara Duterte-Carpio, Sen. Grace Poe and Taguig-Pateros Rep. Alan Peter Cayetano as possible presidential bets.

Among the top news current during the survey was President Duterte’s saying that Marcos was a weak leader and that an unnamed presidential aspirant was a cocaine user. Also, several petitions had been filed with the Commission on Elections for Marcos’ disqualification.

In Metro Manila, Manila Mayor Isko Moreno Domagoso led Robredo 17-14 percent. He also scored close to her among the poorest voters with 14 percent in Class E to Robredo’s 21 percent.

“Should their original pick for president end up not pursuing his/her candidacy, 23 percent of those with a first choice for the post would instead vote for Domagoso,” Pulse Asia said.

Sharing second place in terms of second-choice voting figures were Lacson (17 percent) and Robredo (14 percent), while in third place were Pacquiao (11 percent) and Marcos (11 percent).

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The Comelec has ordered Marcos to answer the disqualification cases filed by martial law survivors led by Bonifacio Ilagan, Akbayan Citizens’ Action Party and Abubakar Mangelen, who claims to be the chair of the Partido Federal ng Filipinos that fielded Marcos. Preliminary conferences for the cases are set for Jan. 7, 2022.

The poll body has received memoranda filed by Marcos and the petitioners to cancel his certificate of candidacy or declare him not qualified to run for president.

Marcos through his lawyers, led by Martial Law-era solicitor general Estelito Mendoza, has pointed out that he was able to file his COC numerous times in various elections and his eligibility was never questioned.

He said the Supreme Court has the exclusive jurisdiction to decide on qualifications of presidential bets. For a misrepresentation to be material – the sole issue – it must pertain to the candidate’s eligibility for public office, he said, adding that there must be “a prior authoritative finding” of Marcos’ ineligibility, which is not the case presented by the petitioners.

Marcos’ submission also mentioned a point of defense put forward by the Partido Federal ng Pilipinas in an answer-in-intervention that was not allowed by the Comelec. He said that the 1977 National Internal Revenue Code did not impose “perpetual disqualification” as a penalty.

This was part of PD 1994 that took effect on Jan. 1, 1986, he said, under which the mandatory filing of Income Tax Returns for the years of 1982 to 1984 already lapsed before PD 1994 took effect. Applying it would give the law an ex post facto effect, which is unconstitutional.

For the filing for the year 1985, Marcos said he was already out of government and forced to leave the country.

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NB: All Postscripts are also archived at ManilaMail.com. Author is on Twitter as @FDPascual. Email: [email protected]