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If so, we should take those surveys as reflection of the changes in the preference of Duterte sympathizers. Meaning that what the recent surveys show is that Duterte supporters are shifting their allegiance to FM Jr. But that does not necessarily mean Marcos will win the presidency.

Many Duterte strategists actually thought that Isko Moreno and not FM Jr. had better chances of winning the presidency. But diehard Duterte supporters are apparently not following their lead, which means that many of those who voted for Duterte are flocking to the Marcos camp. But in the overall scheme of things, that doesn’t mean they are still a dominant force in the elections.

Many things have changed from 2016 to now. I instead see in May 2022 what happened in May 2010, when the late Noynoy Aquino ran for president. For one, many Duterte supporters, notably from the middle class, are disillusioned. Secondly, the Left supported Duterte; now they are for Robredo. Thirdly, the same voters’ fervor Duterte got in 2016 cannot be found in the Marcos campaign.

Any community organizer worth his or her job description will tell you that it is difficult to gather a big crowd if the issue you are peddling is not popular. The same goes with campaign rallies if your candidate is not popular. The core of rallies are the people reached by one’s organizing effort. The rest are the spontaneous elements who embrace the issues or the candidates you are peddling.

For example, the people reached by the organizing efforts of Robredo’s camp in Cebu are not many. But why the big crowd when Robredo held a rally at the SWU grounds? Because the spontaneous elements were for Robredo. That experience was replicated everywhere Robredo went in the country. Which only shows how popular the Robredo candidacy is.

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Meaning that Robredo’s support throughout the country could not only be 16 percent. Which brings me to another point on this crowd-gathering issue. In the Eighties, two major gatherings reflected the popular will. The first was the burial of former senator Ninoy Aquino in 1983 and the second was, of course, the 1986 Edsa people power uprising.

Marcos’ minions would later insist that Edsa, which ended the hated dictatorship, only reflected the will of the people in Metro Manila. Which is a revisionist view of Philippine history. But why did the Edsa gathering win a chunk of the military and people nationwide? Because it reflected the nation’s will.

That’s the message voters are sending to survey firms. Those “mini-Edsas” we are seeing in many provinces nationwide are a reflection of voters’ will. Never ignore these.