Asian Insider Podcast | Why Asean is watching the Philippines’ strategy in South China Sea
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By accident or design, the Philippines, facing a giant China across the South China Sea, is ahead of the curve in terms of the burden-sharing for security in this region.
This is very likely to evolve from rhetoric to requirement for US allies, if former US President Donald Trump returns to power in the White House in January 2025.
Memento Maxima Digital MarketingIn The Straits Times’ Asian Insider Podcast above, global contributor Nirmal Ghosh delves into the current regional situation with his guests – former Philippine Navy rear admiral Rommel Ong, now professor of praxis at the Ateneo School of Government in the Philippines, and Dr. Colin Koh, senior fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies at Nanyang Technological University in Singapore.
The Philippines’ US$103.5 billion (S$139.47 billion) National Budget for 2024, is 9.5 per cent higher than in 2023. The amount allocated to defence is US$4.1 billion (S$5.52 billion) – 14 per cent higher than in 2023.
This is partly to ensure the Philippines is not a weak link in the US-Philippines Mutual Defence Treaty, which commits Washington and Manila to come to the other’s defence, in case of an attack by any other country.
The South China Sea is claimed almost in its entirety by China, but parts are also claimed by several other countries including Vietnam and the Philippines.
Recent incidents between Chinese and Philippines Coast Guard vessels have deepened worries over an accidental escalation that could propel the Philippines, and thus the United States, into a kinetic war with China – something none of the parties want.
The relatively new administration in Manila – under President Ferdinand Marcos Jr – has taken a more robust stand on China than his predecessor Rodrigo Duterte – hence the military build-up.
But it will take time to show “real results”, as Prof Ong explained in the podcast.
Among other factors, both Prof Ong and Dr Koh said the Philippines must pivot its “force posture”, from decades of being immersed in one of Asia’s longest counter-insurgency campaigns against Communist rebels, and in Mindanao.
Meanwhile, as the former US President looks to the Republican Party’s nomination as a mere formality – and with the election a toss-up, very possibly returning him to power – there are unmistakable signals that a new Republican administration would demand more defence spending from its allies.
Security analyst Elbridge Colby for instance – co-founder of The Marathon Initiative which is “focused on developing strategies to prepare the United States for an era of sustained great power competition” – has been arguing that the US’ allies, including Europe and Taiwan, must “arm up.”
Many expect Dr Colby, a former Pentagon official, to be back in the administration if Mr Trump returns to power.
The frequency and intensity of face-offs and clashes between China and the Philippines in the South China Sea will be monitored closely by other Asean claimant states.
In a similar way to Taiwan, the Philippines’ South China Sea stance may prove to be a litmus test of the resolve of both China and the United States.
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Produced by: Nirmal Ghosh ([email protected]) and Fa’izah Sani
Edited by: Fa’izah Sani
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