EDITORIAL-COLUMN OP ED: ASEAN on fire: Will the house fall?
There are two extreme security drives in ASEAN at the moment. On the one hand, some member states see that if Israel can obliterate Gaza without any repercussion, then it should be fine to for others to drop a bomb or two or to redraw borderline and justify territorial expansionism. At the other extreme, countries are finding out that no nation is safe from any sort of attack, territorial invasion, colour revolution and economic sabotage or choking, and this chaotic regional and global situation is strengthening the notion that you can only be safe when you have nuclear weapons.
ASEAN is in a security crisis, looking at the global environment and also within its own border.
No more unity. No more oasis of peace. No more interdependence but only border closures, wars between member states, border insecurities, bombings, air attacks, and firings.
Many ASEAN member states are facing crises at home, such as political polarisation and radicalisation, economic divide, and the rise of extreme nationalism against neighbours.
Many of them are struggling to maintain domestic stability, navigate geopolitical chaos from the multipolar world order, and cope with the restructuring of trade and supply chain infrastructure.
In some countries, we don’t know who the ruler is. Their military commanders are flexing their muscles as they please, as if the country has no government, no law, no rule.
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ASEAN Community Vision 2045 was built based on stability and oasis of peace.
Regional integration and interdependence used to be the strength of ASEAN as external investors treated the whole of ASEAN as a systematic, inter-related, inter-dependent supply chain and a strong consumer market of over 670 million people.
But now, ASEAN can no longer brag about being an “oasis of peace”.
No one talks about the ASEAN Charter anymore, because even the founding member and the very land of birth of ASEAN are trampling on ASEAN principles.
There’s no power big enough to pull ASEAN together despite the members’ differences.
Before, their differences were with external actors but now ASEAN is struggling to manage differences with both external actors and its members.
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Who makes the call now in ASEAN?
Which countries have the pulling power, convening power, and convincing power?
Even the Chair has a difficult time asking members to toe the line and respect ASEAN principles.
Institutional mechanisms to enhance self-restraint no longer work.
Dialogue, cross border cooperation and regional integration are not working anymore because friendship, neighbourliness and trust are diminishing, not to mention the sense of family.
The Southeast Asian Games (SEA Games) this year will be in crisis mode in terms of security assurance.
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The feeling of friendship during the games has been diminished. We remember how the Sea Games football final ended in 2023. There was no solidarity, friendship or sportsmanship at all. The losing team even threw away their medals after the match, which showed utmost disrespect for the host country and went wholly against the sporting spirit.
A sense of community can only be created when border issues are settled or when they present no threat to sovereignty and national security, just like in the case of Europe. France and Germany, who used to be arch enemies, now live side by side on a settled border that is like no line at all. Everyone can pass through from Germany to France in the blink of an eye, and, in that very sense, the border is in fact an imaginary line.
But to reach that level of peace and security, France and Germany had to go through two World Wars, and the iron ore in Europe, which was the source for weapons-making and development of heavy industry had to be pooled together and commonly managed so that no country poses a military danger to another.
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So, how many wars do Cambodia and Thailand need to fight to settle the borderline and be able to live side by side as a community like France and Germany?
What is the “iron ore” for ASEAN to commonly manage to avoid military expansionism? What condition can hold a powerful nation from nationalistic or territorial adventurism? What should be the element for the construction of a common safety mentality and mutually assured security?
It is a highly dangerous situation when ASEAN member states start to harbour the ambition to acquire nuclear weapons to ensure ultimate security and survival.
ASEAN is falling into a situation called “Sok nor-nar, kbal neak neung” (Your hair belongs to your head); This means your survival and security are your own business.
This is the end of the multilateralism that the world has tried to construct for eight decades. For ASEAN, it has been 58 years. ASEAN is about to reverse the 58 years of efforts, and the lead actor in this destruction is the founding member and founding land of ASEAN.
THE EDITOR
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July 31, 2025 -
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