HEADLINE-ASIAGEOPOLITICS | MANILA- Philippine-PH girds for war in Taiwan
Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro Jr. Photo by John Orven Verdote
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(UPDATE) THE Philippine government is preparing contingencies in case China invades Taiwan, Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro Jr. said Thursday.
“First and foremost, we really have to make an assessment whether such is likely or not, nonetheless we continue to plan on all contingencies not merely as a flashpoint between China and Taiwan but any contingency within the theater,” Teodoro said in an interview.
Memento Maxima Digital MarketingHe said the preparations are a multi-agency effort, not just the Department of National Defense.
He said he was “not at liberty to specify” what the contingencies are.
“The assumption is that if this will happen is a thing that we continue to monitor daily and hopefully the engagements bilaterally between the United States and China lead to the diffusion of tensions in that theater,” Teodoro said.
Many security experts pointed out that a Chinese invasion of Taiwan is no longer a question of “if,” but “when.”
Based on the latest reports, a record number of Chinese warships have been spotted in the waters around Taiwan as tensions continue to escalate between the island and mainland China.
Taiwan’s defense ministry said 16 Chinese warships have been sighted near the island over a 72-hour period last week.
During the same period, 72 People’s Liberation Army (PLA) aircraft either crossed the Taiwan Strait’s median line — an unofficial division that separates the two sides — or entered the southern parts of the island’s air-defense identification zone (ADIZ).
Security experts see the deployment of Chinese warships and aircraft as “the latest sign of an intimidation campaign against Taipei by China’s ruling Communist Party.” Tensions started heating up after high-ranking United States officials started visiting Taiwan including US House Speaker Kevin McCarthy.
China had warned the US that a visit would “seriously” harm China’s sovereignty and send a wrong signal to separatist forces.
The root of China’s opposition to the meetings lay in its “one-China” principle, which postulates that any government conducting official relations with China must recognize that Taiwan is an “inalienable part” of its territory.
Taiwan is considered by China as a breakaway province. It also refuses to establish diplomatic relations with countries that recognize Taiwan.
Taiwan maintains official diplomatic relations with 12 out of 193 United Nations member states and the Holy See, which governs Vatican City. Other nations like the Philippines have unofficial diplomatic ties through representative offices and institutions that function as de facto embassies and consulates.
Hostilities between Taiwan and Beijing have grown after Taiwan’s President Tsai Ing-wen was elected in 2016. Tsai refused to accept the one-China principle, prompting Beijing to suspend official exchanges with Taipei and step up its threat to invade the island. In the Philippines, Chinese Ambassador to Manila Huang Xilian accused the US of prepositioning itself to have access to Taiwan via the Philippines which signed the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA), allowing US troops to store defense equipment and humanitarian aid supplies in nine military bases in the country.
Three of the new EDCA sites are located in Northern Philippines — in Cagayan and Isabela, close to the border with Taiwan.
China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs said judging from the locations of the new EDCA-designated bases, the intention behind those sites is “more than obvious.” National Security Adviser Eduardo Año has “personally assured” the Chinese embassy in Manila that “the additional EDCA sites are not meant for offensive operations against China or for interference in the Taiwan issue, but instead are meant to protect the territorial integrity of the country.” Año added that the sites were chosen with the guidelines of the Strategic Basing Plan of the Armed Forces of the Philippines and were not dictated by the US.
The National Security Council also stressed that Manila does not want to meddle in the Taiwan issue. It said the Philippines will not be a pawn of any country.
The NSC said the Philippines simply wants to improve its defense capability, modernize its equipment and assets and develop infrastructure.
The council also maintained that the Philippines adheres to the “One China Policy” and only has diplomatic relations with China.
Taiwan’s top intelligence officials have warned that China could threaten war this year to coerce the Taipei government to agree to talks designed to bring the island democracy under Beijing’s rule.
A key factor is how much economic pressure the Chinese Communist Party is facing from within China, they pointed out.
Defense and security experts stressed that a Taiwan invasion by China would be “one of the most dangerous and consequential events of the 21st century.” They said it “would make the Russian attack on Ukraine look like a sideshow by comparison” and which “could quickly have ramifications far beyond the island, drawing in Japan, South Korea, and the US and other countries of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.”
The Asian Century Philippines Strategic Studies does not see such a threat, saying 40 percent of Taiwan exports are bound for China and two million Taiwanese citizens reside, work, study, or do business in the Chinese mainland.
“China sees the peaceful full reunification of the island with the motherland as just a matter of time and has up to 2049 on the centenary of the founding of the People’s Republic of China to achieve this,” the Asian Century Philippines Strategic Studies told The Manila Times. “Only the US [is hyping up the issue] to maintain tension and for arms sales to keep the war myth heated.”
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