OPINION-COLUMN | BANGKOK: Why Thailand will vote to decide a new constitution

The ballot will ask, “Do you approve that there should be a new constitution?” and offer a choice of “Yes”, “No” or “No opinion”.

A majority “Yes” vote would give parliament a public mandate to begin drafting a new national charter.

A majority “no” vote will leave intact the ‌current constitution, which took effect in 2017 after being drafted by a military-appointed committee following a 2014 coup.

Two prior referendums, in 2007 and 2016, differed from the approaching exercise as they sought approval of drafts written after military coups.

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Why is this important?

Thailand has had 20 constitutions since the end of absolute monarchy in 1932. Most of the changes followed military coups, 13 of which have been successful in the last 94 years.

Critics say the 2017 constitution concentrated power in undemocratic institutions, weakened popular rule and limited decentralisations ⁠of power and meaningful checks and balances.

Central to this is the Senate, or upper house of parliament, whose 200 members are chosen through a complex indirect selection process with little public participation, allowing powerful political groups to influence its composition.

The Senate has an oversight role in lawmaking and holds key powers, such as the appointment of judges to the Constitutional Court and other unelected bodies with outsize influence on politics, including dissolving political parties and banning elected leaders from politics.

The empowerment of such unelected bodies over elected ones, critics say, stemmed from a two-decade long tussle between the conservative establishment, backed by the military, and ‌popular political ‍movements, chiefly those linked to former premier Thaksin Shinawatra.

The charter broadly limits civil rights and freedoms by subordinating them to state security and public morality.

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Who are the supporters and opponents of amendment?

Most mainstream ‌political ​parties, including the ruling Bhumjaithai Party as well as the opposition People’s Party and Pheu Thai, back amending the constitution and are urging supporters to vote “yes” in the referendum.

Bhumjaithai, however, says changes must not affect charter provisions on the monarchy.

Opponents of change come mostly from ultra conservative figures and parties such as the pro-military United Thai Nation Party, which backed former junta chief Prayuth Chan-o-cha but has since lost influence, winning just 36 of 500 seats in the last election.

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What are the next steps?

If “Yes” ⁠voters prevail, the new government and lawmakers can start the amendment process in parliament with two ​more referendums required to adopt a new constitution.

The first task will be to layout the framework and key principles of the drafting process, as well as identifying those responsible for writing the charter.

A second referendum will then seek approval of the process. If secured, a third referendum is next required ​to approve the finished draft.

Experts say the process could run at least two years after the ‍first referendum.

If the Feb 8 referendum fails, lawmakers can still propose charter amendments to individual articles in