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Global experts worldwide have been warning about a looming severe El Niño phenomenon this year.

This week the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration announced that a “very strong” El Niño is expected to hit the country by this October and could last through the first quarter of 2027.

With these warnings, the government must lead in ensuring preparedness for the impact of a severe drought.

The Philippines is no stranger to severe El Niño episodes, which tend to occur at least once every decade. The most recent strong episodes were experienced by the country in 1982-1983, 1997-1998 and 2015-2017.

As of this month, 45 provinces are already facing rainfall deficits, even as certain areas remain submerged in floodwaters from recent typhoons and monsoon-enhanced torrential rainfall.

The country knows only too well the destructive impact of a strong El Niño, not only on agriculture and water supply but also on energy generation and public health.

Even before El Niño’s impact is fully felt in this fourth quarter, the Visayas and Mindanao have already been reeling from regular power outages arising from supply shortages. Farms in certain areas have also been drying up even amid the typhoons and monsoon rains.

In Luzon, recent heavy rainfall filled several dams to their spilling levels. Water distributors have developed water detention systems, although still on a limited scale, not only to ease flooding but also to use the impounded excess water to augment supply during the dry months. In May this year, Maynilad Water began the partial operation of its raw water reservoir at the La Mesa Water Treatment Plant Compound in Quezon City to provide a supply buffer during the dry months.

Many areas across the country, however, lack such systems and are fully at the mercy of nature when it comes to irrigation and fresh water supply. Vulnerable members of the population can also suffer serious health problems due to extreme heat.

PAGASA is warning that this year’s El Niño will be “unprecedented in terms of intensity.” There is no excuse for lack of preparedness.