OP-ED OPINION| LAO PDR: Reflection on ASEAN 2024, a Cambodian view (Part I-II-III)
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Chan Kunthiny
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Reflection on ASEAN 2024, a Cambodian view (Part I)
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“Lao Chairmanship-Driving a safe mode”
The 44th and 45th ASEAN Summits and related Summits under Lao PDR’s ASEAN Chairmanship had been concluded.
Laos has chosen the theme “ASEAN: Enhancing Connectivity and Resilience”, which focuses on enhancing connectivity through integrating economies, forging an inclusive and sustainable future, and transforming for the digital era, and strengthening resilience by supporting the development of the ASEAN Community Vision 2045 and its Strategic Plans.
The choice of theme reflects the general trend of ASEAN member states to strive to bring people together on issues that bind, not divide; issues that promote cooperation, not those that incite confrontation.
Like other ASEAN member states, the Lao Chairman would still like to drive in a safe mode, even though the complex waters surrounding ASEAN and the world are quite unstable.
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Memento Maxima Digital MarketingASEAN is still the most stable zone
Looking around us, ASEAN should be proud of itself as we are part of a small corner that is not lit by the flame of wars.
ASEAN remains the most peaceful and stable region in the world.
Peace is silent, but it is not the silence of the dead. Peace cannot be compared with the noisy celebration of war, where each party claims that it is the victor, but that it is the victor without time for the funerals.
No one should ever neglect the price of peace, including those who beat the drum of confrontation, competition and conflict.
ASEAN always maintains equal distance relations with all its friends, no one is too close, no one is too far. The relevance and centrality of ASEAN is useful when omnidirectional amity and trust can be created through ASEAN’s neutrality and its convening power as an honest forum whose selfless benefit is none other than peace and prosperity for all.
ASEAN has made great progress as a platform to promote practical cooperation that benefits all.
For example, ASEAN is working together to promote intra-ASEAN trade, which saw a decline from 22.5 percent in the first three quarters of 2022 to 21.8 percent in the corresponding period in 2023.
ASEAN is working to promote intraregional investment, which, according to ASEAN Investment Report 2024, fell by 35 per cent to $22 billion, with most Member States receiving a declining intra-ASEAN investment.
ASEAN is trying to develop an ecosystem for electric vehicles and the ASEAN power grid, aiming to ensure a smooth green transition in the region in cooperation with partners.
This is a practical cooperation that ASEAN carries out on a daily basis to promote sustainable and inclusive growth for the benefit of the region.
But normally this type of practical cooperation is less likely to generate a media sensation. And the general public tends to believe that ASEAN can do nothing when they read media that only focuses on century-old conflicts in the region and around the world.
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EU, ASEAN cannot be compared from the start
Previously, ASEAN used to be compared with the EU in terms of its level of integration, a strong single currency, a strong democracy and a strong economy, as well as generous social protection for the population.
The general standard of living of EU residents is the envy of the entire world.
From the beginning, back then, ASEAN did not then want to become like the EU; And for now, ASEAN still does not want to become like the EU.
No one compares ASEAN to the EU anymore, as the latter is disintegrating in terms of unity among member states on divisive issues such as migration, tariffs against China, war against Russia, excessive concentration of power in Brussels, etc.
On the other hand, although extremely heterogeneous, ASEAN may fare better than the EU in terms of space for sovereign independence and self-determination, a conducive platform for external partners to discuss issues of common interest and concerns. Not that ASEAN does not have differences among us, but we choose to discuss them in a discreet and respectful manner, and to put the regional interest, particularly peace and stability, above all else. There is frustration among us, some wish to exclude others, but ultimately we all come together on ASEAN platforms to benefit from efforts to promote commonalities, accumulate agreements and cooperation and, ultimately, to reduce differences.
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Isn’t that what multilateral institutionalization is all about?
ASEAN has served its purpose and we are on track to finalize the ASEAN Community Vision 2045 and its strategic plans under the next Malaysian chairmanship.
Practical cooperation is discreet, uncolorful and unattractive to the international media.
Violence, confrontations and controversies have more benefits for media.
But ASEAN’s main intention is not to fight.
It was created to maintain peace and security, promote trust and confidence, and mobilize cooperation. It was created to think and design the future of the region.
We have been discussing and thinking for quite sometime already about the ASEAN’s future in the next 20 years.
How many regions in the world have sat down and thought together about the future in 20 years? Unfortunately, in the current state of international relations, ASEAN is probably the only one.
And we should be proud of ourselves, proud of the quiet achievements aimed at maintaining tranquility in the region amid the whirlwind of violence, hatred, discrimination and clashes.
ASEAN is like a quiet oasis where leaders can retreat, discuss and think deeply, try to understand what lies behind the thick smoke, and put in place safeguards to protect peace and stability in the interest of all.
The author is a Phnom Penh based geopolitical and security analyst. The views expressed here are the author’s own.
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Reflection on ASEAN 2024, a Cambodian view (Part II)
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“The South China Sea, the greedy, the tricky, and the opportunist”
A century-old conflict has no one to blame. Creating a code of conduct and accepting norms anchored in international law should be the mantra of all claimants.
You should be considered “greedy” if you claim the entire South China Sea for yourself. There is no better way to describe this. You want to live alone, you don’t let others survive.
You should be considered “tricky” if you accuse others of unilateral bad behavior to change the status quo, but at the same time you are doing the exact same thing.
You must be considered “opportunist” if you use the anger of outsiders who wish to eliminate the other conflicting party. You bring together outsiders to join you, leveraging the feeling of a “common enemy.” You receive bribes from both your enemies and your new outside friends.
These three behaviors do not contribute to improving the situation in the South China Sea.
It is not in the interest of the claimants to destabilize the entire region before they can find a table to discuss and a pen to amicably draw their boundaries.
Practically speaking, no one will ever be able to draw the borders for them. Only themselves.
The radical and wild imagination is that the countries directly involved should find a neutral territory to conduct long term negotiation.
Maybe they can invest in artificial island, make it as a weapon-free zone, each country would send a rotation of same number of negotiators to the weapon-free island, they live and negotiate there, play sport together, eat together, sleep together, and don’t bring the headache to ASEAN, and don’t bring outsiders to create proxy wars, deal with it among yourself, peacefully and base on international law.
Or perhaps a less expensive option could be for them to commission an exclusive “peace negotiation cruise ship” for a specified period of time each year for exclusive negotiations with each other on international waters. However, they should be careful not to do this during typhoon season.
Investing in permanent, regular negotiations on neutral territory by the countries directly involved is likely costly, but it is less costly than purchasing weapons or sacrificing personnel on the battlefield.
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Indonesia? No, Jokowi is inward-looking
It is rather puzzling that ASEAN has increased its outward appeal while Indonesia is removing the point of gravity of its foreign affairs from ASEAN.
In Indonesian foreign policy, we have been seeing for some time the idea that Indonesia should go beyond ASEAN. This has never been so amplified by (former) President Jokowi, who was not really interested in ASEAN.
The fine tradition of ASEAN leaders is that once in power, they should try to show courtesy and visit all other ASEAN member states. Despite his 10 years in office, Jokowi has only made official bilateral visits to Malaysia, Singapore, Brunei, the Philippines and Vietnam. He missed Thailand, Cambodia, Laos and Myanmar.
Not only did he avoid bilateral official visits to half of the ASEAN member states, but he also avoided the ASEAN summit for rather unacceptable reasons. Normally, a president is busy when he is running for re-election, not when he is handing over duties to a new president.
The new generation of ASEAN leaders should strive to preserve the golden tradition of friendship carefully crafted by ASEAN’s founding fathers.
Indonesia is not the “renting office” of ASEAN, it is a stakeholder, but not a de facto leader. Self-perception as de facto leader is the root of Indonesia’s despair when it cannot control ASEAN as it pleases. Ultimately, this leads Indonesia to abandon ASEAN.
Indonesia should reduce its excessive expectations that everyone will listen to its orders to avoid stoking internal frustration, causing difficulties for Indonesia’s ASEAN diplomacy.
ASEAN does not have a single leader, that is a fact and a workbook.
An unmet expectation of self-esteem is reflected in an unjustified bossy attitude.
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Reflection on ASEAN 2024, a Cambodian view (Part III)
“Myanmar should get their heads in order”
There is not much progress in the implementation of the Five-Point Consensus (5PC). ASEAN continues to strongly condemn violence from all sides.
There was minor difference (in the re
cent Laos ASEAN Summit) compared to previous Summits. To be precise, in the Chairman Statement of the 44th and 45th ASEAN Summits has mentioned concrete activities such as informal consultation.
The statement wrote, “In this regard, we welcomed the convening of the informal consultation consisting of the current, previous, and incoming Chairs of ASEAN to promote concrete progress on the implementation of the 5PC during the 57th AMM/PMCs and Related Meetings and looked forward to the extended informal consultation with the possible participation of other interested ASEAN Member States to be hosted by Thailand later this year. We acknowledged the convening of the meeting of the Special Envoys on Myanmar in Jakarta, Indonesia, in October 2024.”
What is always troubling for ASEAN coordination is the issue of representation and the willingness of different parties of Myanmar to sit down and talk with each other.
If Myanmar fails to put its house in order, it should at least put its “heads” or its representatives in order.
We know that they have many representatives and that everyone accuses each other of terrorism.
This year 2024 is the first time that the military government has sent non-political representative to the ASEAN summit table, as required by ASEAN.
The “heads” of Myanmar’s stakeholders should come together to negotiate, and ASEAN is happy to provide such a neutral platform.
Malaysia, as the next chairman of ASEAN, should also understand that bashing is not a letter of invitation to negotiation.
ASEAN should be more flexible and more engaging.
All Myanmar’s stakeholders have nothing to lose in the face of pressure from the international community, including ASEAN. They are already on the verge of a full-scale war.
The only hope now is that Myanmar’s key stakeholders let down their guard and discrimination and come together to negotiate in Myanmar’s interests.
ASEAN can be a reliable facilitator capable of providing good offices in terms of a neutral negotiating table, such as what it has done in the past with Cambodia. We recalled that at that time, all Cambodian factions agreed to have ASEAN as mediator.
At that time, the Phnom Penh administration, led by then Prime Minister Hun Sen, also called other parties, especially the Khmer Rouge, terrorists, but the Phnom Penh administration nonetheless resorted to peace negotiations.
Judging from Cambodia’s experiences, Cambodia’s factions all wanted peace before power.
Judging from Myanmar’s behavior, all factions want power before peace.
Now is not the time for ASEAN to run after Myanmar. It is time for Myanmar to run after ASEAN.
No one can dictate Myanmar’s destiny for Myanmar.
If Myanmar needs ASEAN, so be it. If Myanmar doesn’t need ASEAN, so be it.
The author is a Phnom Penh based geopolitical and security analyst. The views expressed here are the author’s own.
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