OP ED: Editorial | Cambodia: What to expect in 2025?
This is a two part articles that attempt to forecast the political, economic and international environment that Cambodia may face in 2025, in a thematic arrangement.
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Cambodia: What to expect in 2025? PART 1|
Cambodia’s then incoming Prime Minister Hun Manet (front) poses for a photo with his incoming Cabinet in Phnom Penh, Cambodia, August 10, 2023. STPM
Possible cabinet reshuffle
In 2024, some ministerial positions were reshuffled, including the Ministry of Tourism, the Ministry of Inspection and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation. The return of former Foreign Minister Prak Sokhonn to his former post surprised many Cambodia’s observers. This reappointment demonstrates how difficult Cambodia views the global political landscape in the context of President Trump’s 2.0 administration and the complicated, unstable, and perilous circumstances that comes along with it.
At the national level, the reshuffles sent a shock wave to the new ministers of the 7th legislature. These reshuffles have shown that the ministerial position is no longer a “hard title” of entitlement but one that comes with serious expectations and heavy responsibilities.
Further reshuffles or replacements are expected to be underway in 2025 or 2026 for ministers with numerous bad reputations from subordinates, poor performance, mismanagement and nepotism. As a Khmer saying goes: “paper cannot wrap fire”, bad reputation spreads very quickly and any attempt to conceal it is futile.
Memento Maxima Digital MarketingReal retirement by elder secretaries of state and under-secretaries of state
Beyond ministerial changes, Cambodia should also expect voluntary retirements of elder secretaries of state and undersecretaries of state.
This is a natural path and an important step that every nation must take for the future.
Samdech Techo Hun Sen has set an example by completely withdrawing from executive power, and Cambodia should expect other elders in the positions of secretaries of state and undersecretaries of state to do the same.
It is not that the nation does not value the immense sacrifices and achievements of these elders, but rather that their decision to step down voluntarily from the executive branch should be seen as an expression of patriotism towards the nation, a contribution to the nation-building and institution building efforts, and for the good of future generations.
Some elders abuse the kindness of Cambodian People’s Party (CPP) leaders. They know that CPP leaders rarely fire people, so they often say that they will “serve Samdech and the CPP until Samdech and the CPP tell them to stop.”
If elders decide to retire, their positions must not be re-filled.
Rather, this would be an exceptional opportunity for Cambodian leaders to put a ceiling on the number of state secretaries and undersecretaries based on the actual needs of each ministry. These two positions have actually inflated the size of government, and sooner or later they would have to be reduced.
Cambodia should not continue to put itself in a situation where many leadership positions in the ministries do not have clear job specifications.
Cambodia should scale back its bloated leadership and set aside a budget to invest in new recruits.
Cambodia should try to avoid the so-called “lers te kvas; kvas te lers” situation, which means that human resources are over capacity but the institution remains underperforming. Many institutions often complain about the lack of human resources. Many institutions face such a situation, in which they have many commanders but no foot soldiers.
Younger generations should be entrusted with leadership responsibilities from the start, particularly at the level of secretaries of state and undersecretaries of state, so that there would be fewer hiccups when ministers change hands. Secretaries of state and undersecretaries of state should become positions of real responsibility rather than purely symbolic appointments.
Sooner or later, Cambodia, as a nation, will have to make a difficult decision, but an important step, and to this end, voluntary withdrawal should be the best form of “dignified exit” for the elders.
Not that the nation no longer needs them, but rather that they voluntarily give way to the next generation to “swim and sink”, in order to strengthen the latter’s leadership and resilience capacity in the exercise of state responsibilities.
The spot-checks, punishments and corrections
Samdech Thipadei Hun Manet, Prime Minister of the Kingdom of Cambodia, made it clear that the first year of his term was mainly spent on policy formulation. From the second year onwards, he would focus on implementation and monitoring.
It is expected that next year the Prime Minister will carry out random checks on hospitals, schools, railways and other public service facilities to hear first-hand the voice of the people and see with his own eyes the situation of public facilities and services.
What we can see through his past actions, such as random appearances in tourist areas of Siem Reap, is that Samdech Hun Manet does not fully believe the submitted reports.
He often says that big ideas can run into many small problems, and that it is the duty of implementers to identify the small problems that get in the way and resolve them so that the big project can actually function.
He practices what he preaches. He doesn’t stay in the office much and his social media platforms always show his never-ending activities.
He doesn’t seem tired at all, and some of the people behind him look like they lack good sleep.
The “clean-up” of online scam
The clean-up of online scam organizations that have tarnished Cambodia’s reputation has been very intensive in 2024. The campaign is expected to continue in 2025 to gradually restore Cambodia’s image as a beautiful and dignified nation.
Online fraud and human trafficking are sophisticated criminal activities, and the duty to prevent, suppress and eliminate these crimes falls on everyone, sending countries, destination countries and transit countries, as well as to all citizens of the countries concerned. All stakeholders must raise awareness among their population of the different forms of scams, their dangers and their consequences for those involved in these crimes.
It is expected that Cambodia will be able to improve its image and regain confidence in 2025, which would lead to a sharp increase in tourism.
The inauguration of Techo International Airport
The construction of the airport attracted a lot of international interest in terms of its design and size, a quality that has been hailed as the next Singapore.
With the anticipation comes the burden of responsibilities. Learning from the experiences of the new Siem Reap International Airport, the government needs to ensure a smooth transition from the old airport and a good experience for travelers when commuting between the airport and the city center.
Progress of Funan Techo Canal
Visible construction activity is expected next year for the Funan Tencho Canal.
There has been so much criticism of this project, especially by Vietnamese writers, and some may wish for it to fail.
Despite all the circumstances, domestic and international public opinion needs to get the facts straight and be more realistic about the project.
The fact is that the project is ongoing and although it may have a social and environmental impact, inevitable for any megaproject, it will certainly not change the fate of the Mekong River, to which Cambodia owes a lot in terms of food security and people’s livelihoods.
The canal will not change the fact that Cambodia and Vietnam’s trade and logistics relations are interconnected.
The national and international public must be realistic: for any megaproject, setbacks are sometimes inevitable. There is no guarantee that the entire project will proceed as planned. For example, even Vietnam’s metro has to wait 10 years after construction is completed before it can be put into service.
Therefore, contingencies need to be considered for project management. Stakeholders shouldn’t get too confident, well-wishers shouldn’t get too happy, and critics shouldn’t get too apocalyptic.
The bottom line is that the desire to further develop and modernize the Cambodian economy must be respected.
Cambodia: What to expect in 2025? .PART 2 |
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The political situation in neighboring countries can pose security concerns for Cambodia.
The case of Thailand presents the case in which extreme nationalism can be instigated based on the unsettled border issues.
Thai domestic political actors who provoked violent conflicts between Cambodia and Thailand in the past have recently intensified their activities.
Many Cambodians have noticed that anytime there is a significant internal conflict in Thai politics, there is a noticeable pattern of political complexity spilling over to Cambodia.
Thai politicians often use border disputes and other conflicting issues with neighbors as leverage in their internal political battles.
Eventually, this pattern frequently uses Cambodia as a scapegoat in their power struggle, which leads to anti-Cambodia propaganda.
The case of Vietnam illustrates a growing anti-Cambodia sentiment that is connected to anti-China sentiment.
Vietnam’s domestic situation is also unstable due to several leadership changes and extensive reforms, and trust in Cambodia is eroding because many Vietnamese new generation leaders are less knowledgeable about Cambodia and strongly want to view relations with Cambodia through the prism of China-Vietnam relations. Many Vietnamese leaders view Cambodia as their “little brother.”
Vietnam has been seen attempting to obstruct any development projects linked to China, from the Funan Techo Canal to the modernization of the Ream naval base and even the construction of the Phnom Penh-Bavet expressway.
Such adversarial politics by both Thai and Vietnamese politicians will continue to pose challenges to Cambodia’s domestic politics and national development.
As in any other country, there are hard-line and moderate politicians and academics.
Some try to destabilize relationships, while others try to find stabilizing factors to ensure the sustainability of traditional friendships.
Some warmongering individuals profit politically from sensitive issues such as unresolved borders and ultra-nationalism.
There are concerns about the extent to which the Thai and Vietnamese leaders have the political will and strong intentions to combat such extremist ideas and activities.
Cambodia is fighting hard against these extremists, some of whom live comfortably abroad, posting and spreading fake maps and news about unresolved borders with impunity.
Unfortunately, these political hardliners who want countries to fight each other over unresolved border issues also receive funding, media support, and political support from foreign entities.
These foreign entities are in fact funding and supporting the spread of fake news and destabilization of domestic politics of countries in the region.
The extremist politicians even have human rights organizations behind them. Human rights organizations have never condemned extremist politicians and their daily production of fake news that fosters hatred, misunderstanding, racism, and violence.
What Cambodia can do is identify and build trust with moderate-leaning foreign politicians in neighboring countries and put guardrails against the possibility of violent conflict between countries that would harm the interests of people in the region.
Conducting more robust exchanges of young politicians and researchers is a must to reduce misunderstanding between neighboring countries.
Will Myanmar become the next Ukraine?
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The war and security situation in Myanmar are of serious concern to the entire region. Rather than slowing down, the war is escalating.
Violence continues. There are no talks in place.
As the next chair of ASEAN, Malaysia faces an extremely difficult task of ensuring that no country in the Southeast Asian region becomes the next Ukraine, a site of war machines and weapons testing, a site of ideological struggle, or a site of proxy wars, that will have devastating impact on regional peace, stability and development.
Is China taking a break or catching its breath?
The superpower rivalry between the United States and China will obviously intensify. The fight against Russia becomes like a prelude to the final battle with China.
For the West, the fight against the rise of China is a long marathon, sometimes they lose, sometimes they win, but those who last until the end will win.
Currently, the battles between China and the West are on the fronts of trade, technology, supply chain, diplomatic influence and global governance.
On some issues we can see that China is responding very harshly, but on others we can see that it remains silent.
For example, on trade issues, China often retaliates against unilateral restrictive measures from the West. China is working hard to find alternatives for the dominance of dollar.
But technologically, China is moving forward quietly and it seems that it is winning in the race for electric vehicles. China is also quietly developing its semiconductors to support smart devices despite export restrictions from the West and its allies.
So, in the current situation, it is difficult to say whether China is “taking a break” or “catching its breath” amid growing pressure for competition from the West.
If China finds itself in a winning situation, then it can take a break whenever it wants, it does not need to fight back very hard, it can just focuse on its internal development.
If China is catching its breath, it means that it is struggling hard to fight back, its economy is in decline, its consumption is struggling, employment is reduced, and all economic activities and technological progress are de-accelerated.
At the moment, the current situation is still blurred to reach any conclusion.
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